El riesgo beneficio es sencillo. La tesis es que el covid no se va a ir (parece muy probable ahora), los 2-3 años asegurados puede que sean más y que Novavax tiene una vacuna tan buena como las mRNA y con más facilidad de transporte y almacenamiento. Capacidad este año de 500M y el que viene >1.5B. 2B en caja y es probable que 2021-2023 venda >30B. Capitaliza 14B o así y las mRNA bastantes veces más (Moderna 140B).
Por supuesto hay varios riesgos (unos más probables que otros). Un efecto adverso grave no detectado hasta ahora, errores en la producción masivos, incapaces de validación por meses, desacuerdo con US, el bicho desaparece...
Buen post en IV de biotexbull:
Somewhere between speculation and facts lies reality.
1.8M shares traded in the AH session Thursday, which is unusually high for this stock. The markets do not like uncertainty. They never have. The crash last March was due to uncertainty. Once Congress authorizes $3,000,000,000,000 of liquidity to combat COVID the markets turned on a dime and rallied strongly even though we were still locked down and businesses were reeling.
Stan’s announcement of a delay in US filing and the lack of real clarity as to why given on the call caused uncertainty. The SEC filing and NYT piece which contained some very strong language to the effect that they didn’t know if they would ever be approved lit the panic fuse.
Stan was clearly concerned by the voracious sell off on what was an overwhelmingly positive call. So he comes out today to try to clear the overhang of uncertainty around the news flow. The timing was spot on heading into the weekend. Better timing would have been the earnings call but I digress.
All analysts have reiterated their guidance and some have raised their targets following this call. Why? Because they see the writing on the wall. This “no vaccine in their 34 year history”company has filed with regulatory bodies for the first time ever in the midst of an aggressive surge from a very fit mutation that has accelerated the need for the best vaccine in the world as evidenced by clinical data time and time again. They spoke with Stan and the team individually and have data on pricing, etc and know that the vast majority of the planet is starving for vaccinations. They’ve been accepting scraps of poor compounds and things are worsening.
They understand that the thesis does not revolve around US uptake and this sell off is overdone. Institutions sat at $190 and digested shares for nearly 7 hours. Lots of retail capitulated Friday. The constant wash and rinse is too much for the average Joe. After sitting in limbo for a month, you get a euphoric 2 day rally on huge news, your account swells, and the next day it’s all wiped and there is FUD galore.
Regarding the US, as I’ve stated numerous times, it’s not central to the thesis, but they matter as they funded the creation of the compound along with CEPI. They’ve blessed the rest of the world with first rights, but believe that they want a bite. They want it produced on their soil, and they do not want another JNJ/Emergent.
Fact: OWS still has influence. They hold the purse strings. They want FUJI Texas and NC up to speed using their desired assays.
Texas has been a problem child for Novavax since March. It’s clearly still not up to snuff and OWS is getting pissed 4 months later.
This was alluded to in the Baltimore Sun piece.
They flexed on Novavax and brought out the bazzooka. Monetary threats and leaks to the press about their frustration.
Stan gets it. He needs to start doing some flexing of his own with the Super Novas.
Speculative here, but he’s been focused on ex US due to the fact that he’s closer to the finish line ex US. These guys are stretched thin. They aren’t BP yet. They move and target resources where they strategically see the need.
If the US allows Novavax to export the initial 110M there is a high likelihood they will order at least that much in 2022 for US boosters if non inferiority booster studies confirm. (3) mRNA VS (2) mRNA and (1) 2373.
They would be foolish to sideline 2373. Don’t let the headlines fool you.
Stan’s teams have to get in line with their requirements. Onerous as that may seem it’s just a cold hard fact.
Speculative here…No Texas sized issues at Teeside. Wrapping up CMC there.
Fact: Ex US = Different assay.
Fact: EU has seen enough from a CMC standpoint to APA and diversify their portfolio of compounds. They bet the farm mRNA.
Speculative: MHRA,EMA,SK will domino.
Fact: We can’t quantify what India will pay for 2373, but it will mean bottom line enhancement.
Somewhere between the speculations and the facts lies reality.
Fact: COVID is Endemic and 2373 is well positioned.