Too much to listen and too little time...
My rating: ★★★★☆ (4/5)
Pointers:
- 2:45 – Is stock picking dying? “It’s always been tough but there is more light being shown on that now”.
- 4:02 – Active Management is not going to disappear.
- 5:20 – Slow evolution is not abnormal. It only takes a decade to be an overnight sensation [referring to mutual and passive funds].
- 5:33 – What makes Ken Fisher’s approach so unique?
- 8:52 -- Where are we today with the economy and the stock market valuations?
- 11:45 – If you buy stocks when they are above average valuations you will get below average expected returns and vice versa. Is that a fair statement or you [Fisher] disregard that? “It totally ignores behavioral realities of what humans are. What humans are, is that if the next 10 yrs are gonna be lousy but the next 5 yrs are gonna be great, people are gonna lose their minds before the next 5 yrs…”
- 13:29 – In a recent presentation Bogle did not take into account the Behavior Gap (people underperform their own investments because of buying high and selling low) in mutual funds returns.
- 15:18 – “People invest the way they feel, and the way they feel is almost always backward looking.”
- 18:14 – Why does Ken Fisher hate annuities?
- 20:24 – Fiduciary Rule. “Stupid rule with great intent.”
- 26:34 – Ken Fisher’s process to select stocks. He is good at figuring out a good pond to fish in as opposed to actually being good at getting the fish. Distrust phony accounting. Companies that behave like the sector. Competitive Advantages. The last step is valuation because he’s never been a believer that valuations are predictive of anything.
- 31:16 – “People say and it’s not true: 'Markets hate uncertainty.' What Markets hate is rising uncertainty. Markets like high levels of uncertainty that are falling…”
- 33:00 – What about the Shrinking Stock Universe in the U.S.?
- 36:45 – He believes that this is the year (2017) where foreign stocks take over and US lags. He doesn’t have a problem with passive, but the folks that are passive with US only, better be prepared for lagging.
- 37:53 – “In the long term pricing is controlled by the shifts in the Supply of securities, not Demand.”
- 42:50 – How did Fisher accomplished what he has accomplished? He said he has the “little brother complex” so he had to figure out how he could get what he wanted in the face of superior competition. And also through the process of trial and error in small scale and if it works then applying it in a larger scale. And if it doesn’t work then move to the next one.
- 48:01 – “We separate completely Sales from Service, so our people Sales people do not [do customer service].”
- 49:28 – What´s your risk tolerance? “It’s a little like a boxing analogy where most people haven’t been hit in the gut hard enough and enough times… The good boxer actually knows where his risk tolerance is to a gut punch but the average person doesn’t…”
- 50:16 -- Life expectancy.
- 55:49 – Mentors.
- 1:03:37 – Books
- 1:10:20 – How do you keep physical and mentally fit?
- 1:21:20 – Advice for millennials who want to go into finance? Talk to people that are about 5 years older and have done it. The course millennials have to follow is different than the course much older people followed because the world has evolved. And simultaneously don’t forget that it’s a long run, a long life.
- 1:21:03 – What do you wish you knew about investing and markets 35 years ago? The course and the transition that have occurred to journalism because it has a big impact (good or bad) on sentiment and investing.
Listen to it: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2017-04-07/interview-with-ken-fisher-part-2-masters-in-business-audio
