Farmas USA

Bueno, a los que estamos dentro, por el momento nos viene bien. Suerte a todos

Yo ni lo he leido ni lo voy a leer, solo hago difusion del pumpeo.

Eso si, suelo leer los comentarios, mira que los hay deprimidos juas

NVAX

Edito: hombre, Trantor,tu tb comentas!!! :)

Los comentarios son "desilusional" a tope

Uno que merece la pena leer

"Good article a bit optimistic even for a long like me but the possibilities are all real. Just a comment on the "P value" discussion. I think it misses the mark and I have seen a lot of this lately since another article recently came out criticizing the P value for the PH2 trial. This and other discussions exhibit a poor understanding of P values when stating that a risk for NVAX RSV PH3 trial is in a high P value. That will not happen. Zero chance. The P value will almost certainly start with .00. You have a trial sized about SEVEN times larger than the phase 2. P will be miniscule. The risk of failure is that the vaccine exhibits low EFFICACY. Peeps are confusing the efficacy number with a probability number (a confidence interval), and it is dead wrong. The trial is powered so that whatever the result, that result will be EASILY statistically significant. The only question is for example if the "all RSV" prevention number (now the 2ndary endpoint previously the primary endpoint) is 30% with P=.001, is 30% good enough? It sounds not great but IMO the FDA is FINE with a number like that. Flu vaccines have prevented less than 30% in 3 of the last 11 years. 4 out of the last 5 years flu has been under 50% with the highest flu prevention in that time about 51%. Here you have a disease burden for RSV that is roughly equal to flu in many categories (including incidence of disease and disease burden/cost). That is why they gave NVAX 2 bites at the apple by making for PH3 the rate for all RSV cases the SECONDARY ENDPOINT. The primary endpoint is now prevention of moderate to severe RSV and by my calculations (opinions vary slightly) NVAX hit 68% cure rate for moderate to severe RSV in the PH2 trial. The FDA knows that the prevention rate for moderate severe will be AT LEAST AS HIGH AS THE OVERALL "ALL RSV" prevention RATE AND PROBABLY HIGHER. Thus they gave NVAX 2 bites at the apple bc even if the overall is say 30% (well below the 41% in PH2), NVAX still has a real good shot at hitting the primary endpoint with a 45% or so reduction in moderate to severe RSV. (extrapolate from the phase 2 to the phase 3 the 41% and 68% numbers from the "all rsv" compared to "moderate to severe" rsv cases, and therein lies the 2nd bite at the apple gifted by the FDA). The point being the FDA really wants this vaccine to be out there and is giving it every opportunity to succeed-been waiting 50-60 years for it..."

NVAX

NVAX. Los usanos se calientan con el articulo , 7,60 en el after.

Edito: 7,64

PTN le sobra la L al ticker wlundgren. Es cierto que "estamos" esperando resultados de bremelanotide. $heff estaba y no ha hecho nada mas salirse y se ha disparado.

A modo de curiosidad os dejo aqui el testimonio de un usano que comenta su estrategia y argumentos bajistas. 

Con la de vueltas que le damos a la cabeza con nuestras inversiones... No tiene desperdicio el razonamiento de este especimen.

"bobby_boucher_wny • Sep 7, 2016 4:48 PM 
I did indeed short 10,000 shares in the 5's and another 3,000 shares in the mid 5's. My final and most recent short was 10,000 shares in the upper 6's. Full disclosure - I am currently sitting on 23,000 shares short which I refuse to cover until the 2's. Stan and this company has never delivered anything except a nice fat paycheck for him and his board. Why should I flip and go long on a bunch of empty promises. I traded this stock in & out for years but for now I remain short".

PUES VAS PALMANDO UN BUEN PICO, MAJETE!!

NVAX

NVAX
Pues no has llegado a la parte que dice que podría llegar a $140. Y yo pensando en vender la mayoría a partir de $42, tendré que replantearme la estrategia, jajaja.

El artículo está bastante bien, dice todo lo que por aquí se conoce y se deja alguna cosa como ha señalado framus. Si lo que pone en su cv es cierto, pues muy buena pinta. Sólo tiene unos pocos artículos sa sobre otra empresa. Poco conocido pero un buen signo. No he investigado más.

Eso sí, es exageradamente optimista. No sólo en precio sino en la probabilidad de llegar a comercializar. 94%, y se queda tan ancho. Creo que nadie puede saber eso y que además pueden pasar muchas cosas. Soy incapaz de hacer una estimación de ese estilo. Los mía, y se debe seguramente a mis limitaciones, es de 70% +-20%. Y en base a esa hago mi estrategia.

Desde luego el mercado está más cerca de mi visión que de la otra. Es que sino la gente es tonta de no meter casi todos los ahorros ya, dejarlos 5 años y a disfrutar de la vida...