Re: Farmas USA
OMER
No la sigo pero pongo un mensaje que he leído en IV y parece interesante:
https://www.investorvillage.com/groups.asp?mb=19595&mn=684&pt=msg&mid=18055281
Now, I will not go into PTLA as I have written a scathing note on the PTLA board that got me smacked by Uli for being down right too negative on those buffoons. Suffice it to say I'm far from impressed with the mess made by management at PTLA. I have been out of ZIOP and CRMD for a while but still went in even though the management had some mis-steps.
OMER seems to me to be a different story. So much negative has been written about OMIDRIA and some of it is deserved especially the way it has been handled by management. I may not know much, but running an Ophthalmology Pharma company is what I used to do for a living before opening my own consulting company. So I think I know a thing or two about Surgical procedures in Ophthalmology.
OMIDRIA serves an unmet need from a drug perspective. This is clear to me. There are many things that can be used in cataract surgery to minimize potential complications. To be very forthright, cataract surgery is one of the most common and safe operating procedures out there but that is not to say that there are no complications or that there is no post-operative issues. Without getting too technical, OMIDRIA does 2 things well. First, it keeps the Pupil Dilation more constant, which is key for the surgeon and 2 it helps reduce the post operative pain that is caused by the actual surgery. Now, before this whole passthrough issue, there was reimbursements for OMIDRIA. Without passthrough, those have gone away and Dr's are awaiting either resolution to this OR new pricing from OMER. If you listened to the CEO on the call, he said that they are close to getting a resolution. That DOES NOT MEAN IT WILL BE POSITIVE. However, to me resolution either good or bad is actually great for OMER. The biggest issue for OMER is that they are in limbo here. They do not want to come out with a significantly reduced price to then get a positive outcome on passthrough and have to work at re-pricing. That would be a disaster!! What will happen is either way, they will have a price out to the marketplace I believe by end of March if not sooner. This means one full quarter of loss sales. However, once it is settled, this will no longer be an issue. If they have to reduce the price, then I can pretty much guarantee that their penetration rate of about 5% of cataract surgeries will jump. This may not make up the price decrease but it still will deliver sales and needed cash flow.
Ok enough about OMEDRIA because as I have said repeatedly, I am not in this stock for that but for OMS721. There are 3 different phase 3 trials underway and a market cap of below $500 million. Forget OMEDRIA. Forget default as it has been shown that this is a moot point until March 2019. Forget them being stretched for cash as they have just under $100MM ($84 cash and $14 in A/R) and the ability to raise an additional $45MM from the loan. Forget about any creditors forcing OMER into liquidation or Bankruptcy. But do Remember that they have Breakthrough designation for OMS721 for Igan. Remember that they just applied for Breakthrough designation on OMS721 for HSCT-associated TMA and should get it in the next 30-45 days. Remember that they own their assets outright and at any point can partner their assets outside of the US. Remember that they do not sell OMIDRIA outside the US. Remember their unreal results they just published in OMS721 for HSCT-associated TMA. Heck even Dennis who absolutely hates this company (His words "I wouldn't invest my worst enemies money in this stock") said the data was unbelievable.
Unlike the disaster du jour at PTLA, with its pitiful management, this stock will survive. Greg Demopulos is far from being perfect. He at times seems less than forthright and many times makes promises that are not kept. But the real issue is the shorts that have a hold on this stock. The same happened to CELG a while back and they got absolutely roasted. I will be buying more tomorrow if they drop it to the low $8's or high $7's.
